Troyes vs Montpellier Prediction

Ligue 1 22/23 · Sun 19 Feb, 14:00
Troyes
01 Full time
Montpellier
Troyes 0–1 Montpellier

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 33%
Draw 28%
Away 39%

💡 Montpellier have a slight edge — leaning Montpellier, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 40.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1413 v 1431 Montpellier rated higher
Form Index 0.2 v 1.2 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1413 vs 1431).
  • Montpellier is in clearly better recent form (1.2 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Montpellier
Form Index
Montpellier
Goal expectation
Montpellier
Home advantage
Troyes

Green = favours Troyes · Blue = favours Montpellier. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
TroyesLDLLL0.2 ppg
MontpellierLWLLW1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Troyes1413
Montpellier1431
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 25% · 41%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 33%
Machine-learning31% · 36% · 33%

AI match preview

Troyes and Montpellier are set for a closely contested Ligue 1 clash, with the model giving a slight edge to Montpellier at 39% probability, while a draw stands at 28%. The expected goals suggest an open game with both sides likely to find the net, as reflected in the 1-1 predicted scoreline and a 67% chance for both teams to score. With over 2.5 goals projected at 65%, fans can anticipate an entertaining match, but remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.77

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 65%

Under 35%

Both teams to score

Yes 67%

No 33%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2023 Troyes 0–1 Montpellier
Aug 2022 Montpellier 3–2 Troyes