Montpellier vs Toulouse Prediction

Ligue 1 22/23 · Sun 9 Apr, 15:00
Montpellier
12 Full time
Toulouse
Montpellier 1–2 Toulouse

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (49%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 49%
Draw 22%
Away 29%

💡 Montpellier are favourites — about 49 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 55.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 55.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1483 v 1460 Montpellier rated higher
Form Index 2.2 v 0.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Montpellier v Toulouse

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1483 vs 1460).
  • Montpellier is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Montpellier
Form Index
Montpellier
Goal expectation
Montpellier
Home advantage
Montpellier

Green = favours Montpellier · Blue = favours Toulouse. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MontpellierDWWWD2.2 ppg
ToulouseLLWLL0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Montpellier1483
Toulouse1460
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 24% · 28%
Power Rating51% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning50% · 15% · 35%

AI match preview

Montpellier hosts Toulouse in a Ligue 1 clash where the home side holds a 49% chance of victory, though a draw or away win remain plausible outcomes. The model forecasts 2.04 expected goals for Montpellier against 1.51 for Toulouse, suggesting an open game with a 69% probability of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. While a 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline, Montpellier edges the statistical projections for a win with moderate confidence—remember to enjoy the match responsibly and gamble within your limits (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.51

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 69%

Under 31%

Both teams to score

Yes 69%

No 31%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Montpellier 1–2 Toulouse
Oct 2022 Toulouse 4–2 Montpellier