Lyon vs Marseille Prediction

Ligue 1 22/23 · Sun 23 Apr, 20:45
Lyon
12 Full time
Marseille
Lyon 1–2 Marseille

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 34%
Draw 27%
Away 39%

💡 Marseille have a slight edge — leaning Marseille, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 40.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1567 v 1620 Marseille rated higher
Form Index 2.2 v 1.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Marseille is the stronger side on Power Rating (1620 vs 1567).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Marseille
Form Index
Lyon
Goal expectation
Marseille
Home advantage
Lyon

Green = favours Lyon · Blue = favours Marseille. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LyonDDWWW2.2 ppg
MarseilleDWDDW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Lyon1567
Marseille1620
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model24% · 33% · 43%
Power Rating38% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning30% · 20% · 50%

AI match preview

Lyon host Marseille in a Ligue 1 clash where the model slightly favors an away win with a 39% probability, though a draw or home victory remains plausible. Expected goals suggest a tight game with Marseille edging 1.19 to Lyon's 0.82, while the most likely scoreline is a goalless draw. With low probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, this match could hinge on defensive solidity—remember, these projections are statistical estimates and betting should be done responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.82 – 1.19

Most likely score

0-0

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 33%

Under 67%

Both teams to score

Yes 41%

No 59%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Lyon 1–2 Marseille
Nov 2022 Marseille 1–0 Lyon