Lyon vs Montpellier Prediction

Ligue 1 22/23 · Sun 7 May, 17:05
Lyon
54 Full time
Montpellier
Lyon 5–4 Montpellier

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (57%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 57%
Draw 20%
Away 23%

💡 Lyon are favourites — about 57 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 67.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 67.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1566 v 1505 Lyon rated higher
Form Index 2.4 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Lyon is the stronger side on Power Rating (1566 vs 1505).
  • Lyon is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.7 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lyon
Form Index
Lyon
Goal expectation
Lyon
Home advantage
Lyon

Green = favours Lyon · Blue = favours Montpellier. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LyonWWWLW2.4 ppg
MontpellierDLLWW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Lyon1566
Montpellier1505
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 27% · 24%
Power Rating57% · 16% · 28%
Machine-learning67% · 11% · 22%

AI match preview

Lyon enters this Ligue 1 clash with a 57% chance of securing a home win against Montpellier, backed by an expected goals tally of 1.69 to 1.13. Despite the home advantage, the model suggests a closely contested match with a 20% draw probability and a most likely scoreline of 1-1. With a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and 57% likelihood of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an engaging encounter, though these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.13

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 53%

Under 47%

Both teams to score

Yes 57%

No 43%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Lyon 5–4 Montpellier
Oct 2022 Montpellier 1–2 Lyon