Montpellier vs Lorient Prediction

Ligue 1 22/23 · Sun 14 May, 15:00
Montpellier
11 Full time
Lorient
Montpellier 1–1 Lorient

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 27%
Away 29%

💡 Montpellier have a slight edge — leaning Montpellier, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 48.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 48.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1498 v 1511 Lorient rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1498 vs 1511).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lorient
Form Index
Lorient
Goal expectation
Montpellier
Home advantage
Montpellier

Green = favours Montpellier · Blue = favours Lorient. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MontpellierLLWWL1.2 ppg
LorientDLLWW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Montpellier1498
Lorient1511
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model40% · 26% · 35%
Power Rating45% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning29% · 38% · 33%

AI match preview

Montpellier hosts Lorient in a closely matched Ligue 1 encounter, with the model giving the home side a 44% chance of victory and a moderate confidence level of 48/100. Both teams are projected to score, with an expected goals tally of 1.71 for Montpellier and 1.59 for Lorient, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.59

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 64%

Under 36%

Both teams to score

Yes 67%

No 33%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Montpellier 1–1 Lorient
Dec 2022 Lorient 0–2 Montpellier