Marseille vs Strasbourg Prediction

Ligue 1 23/24 · Fri 12 Jan, 20:00
Marseille
11 Full time
Strasbourg
Marseille 1–1 Strasbourg

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (59%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 59%
Draw 22%
Away 18%

💡 Marseille are favourites — about 59 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 69.6/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 69.6
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1542 v 1494 Marseille rated higher
Form Index WWWWD v LDWWW Marseille 2.6 · Strasbourg 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Marseille is the stronger side on Power Rating (1542 vs 1494).
  • Marseille is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 2.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Marseille
Form Index
Marseille
Goal expectation
Marseille
Home advantage
Marseille

Green = favours Marseille · Blue = favours Strasbourg. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MarseilleWWWWD2.6 ppg
StrasbourgLDWWW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Marseille1542
Strasbourg1494
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model72% · 22% · 6%
Power Rating55% · 17% · 28%
Machine-learning55% · 22% · 23%

AI match preview

Marseille enter this Ligue 1 clash with a strong 59% chance of victory, supported by a projected 1.82 expected goals against Strasbourg’s 0.36. The model favors a tight 1-0 scoreline, reflecting a likely low-scoring affair with only a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance both teams score. These projections highlight Marseille’s advantage but remind fans to consider all outcomes and gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.82 – 0.36

Most likely score

1-0

20% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 37%

Under 63%

Both teams to score

Yes 26%

No 74%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 102+ matches)

MarseilleStrasbourg
5.3 Corners 3.9
2.1 Cards 2.0
11.7 Fouls 12.1

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Marseille 1–1 Strasbourg
Nov 2023 Strasbourg 1–1 Marseille