Montpellier vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 23/24 · Sun 11 Feb, 16:05
Montpellier
12 Full time
Lyon
Montpellier 1–2 Lyon

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 27%
Away 29%

💡 Montpellier have a slight edge — leaning Montpellier, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 48.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 48.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1465 v 1438 Montpellier rated higher
Form Index WDLDL v WWLLW Montpellier 1.0 · Lyon 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Montpellier v Lyon

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1465 vs 1438).
  • Lyon is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Montpellier
Form Index
Lyon
Goal expectation
Montpellier
Home advantage
Montpellier

Green = favours Montpellier · Blue = favours Lyon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MontpellierWDLDL1.0 ppg
LyonWWLLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Montpellier1465
Lyon1438
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model42% · 35% · 22%
Power Rating51% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning67% · 22% · 11%

AI match preview

Montpellier hosts Lyon in a Ligue 1 clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 44%, with a 48/100 confidence level, though a goalless draw remains the most probable exact score. Expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Montpellier edging 1.09 to Lyon’s 0.72, while both teams scoring is projected at just 36%. With only a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals, this encounter could be a cautious affair—remember, these are statistical probabilities and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.09 – 0.72

Most likely score

0-0

18% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 27%

Under 73%

Both teams to score

Yes 36%

No 64%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2024 Montpellier 1–2 Lyon
Aug 2023 Lyon 1–4 Montpellier