Metz vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 23/24 · Fri 23 Feb, 20:00
Metz
12 Full time
Lyon
Metz 1–2 Lyon

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (40%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 31%
Draw 29%
Away 40%

💡 Lyon have a slight edge — leaning Lyon, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 42.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 42.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1403 v 1464 Lyon rated higher
Form Index LLLDL v LLWWW Metz 0.2 · Lyon 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Metz v Lyon

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Why we predict this

  • Lyon is the stronger side on Power Rating (1464 vs 1403).
  • Lyon is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lyon
Form Index
Lyon
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Metz

Green = favours Metz · Blue = favours Lyon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MetzLLLDL0.2 ppg
LyonLLWWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Metz1403
Lyon1464
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 35% · 32%
Power Rating37% · 27% · 36%
Machine-learning43% · 32% · 24%

AI match preview

Lyon are slightly favored to edge Metz with a 40% chance of an away win, though the match is also quite balanced with a 31% probability for a home victory and 29% for a draw. The expected goals are close, around 0.97 for Metz and 0.93 for Lyon, suggesting a tight contest likely to produce few goals, with 0-0 being the most probable scoreline. With just a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, this game may hinge on a single moment of quality—remember, these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.97 – 0.93

Most likely score

0-0

17% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 30%

Under 70%

Both teams to score

Yes 39%

No 61%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2024 Metz 1–2 Lyon
Nov 2023 Lyon 1–1 Metz