Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 23/24 · Fri 15 Mar, 20:00
Toulouse
23 Full time
Lyon
Toulouse 2–3 Lyon

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 27%
Away 31%

💡 Toulouse have a slight edge — leaning Toulouse, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.8/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.8
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1473 v 1475 Lyon rated higher
Form Index LWWWL v WWWLW Toulouse 1.8 · Lyon 2.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Toulouse v Lyon

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1473 vs 1475).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Lyon
Goal expectation
Toulouse
Home advantage
Toulouse

Green = favours Toulouse · Blue = favours Lyon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ToulouseLWWWL1.8 ppg
LyonWWWLW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Toulouse1473
Lyon1475
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model39% · 31% · 30%
Power Rating46% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning59% · 24% · 17%

AI match preview

Toulouse and Lyon face off in a closely matched Ligue 1 encounter, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 41% probability and a 43.8/100 confidence level. The expected goals are tight, 1.29 for Toulouse and 1.12 for Lyon, suggesting a competitive game likely to end around a 1-1 draw. With a 51% chance both teams will score and under 50% for over 2.5 goals, fans can anticipate a balanced contest; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.12

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 43%

Under 57%

Both teams to score

Yes 51%

No 49%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2024 Toulouse 2–3 Lyon
Dec 2023 Lyon 3–0 Toulouse