Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction

Ligue 1 23/24 · Sun 21 Apr, 19:00
Toulouse
22 Full time
Marseille
Toulouse 2–2 Marseille

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (37%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 37%
Draw 28%
Away 35%

💡 Toulouse have a slight edge — leaning Toulouse, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 38.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1491 v 1513 Marseille rated higher
Form Index LLWDW v WWLLL Toulouse 1.4 · Marseille 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1491 vs 1513).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Marseille
Form Index
Toulouse
Goal expectation
Toulouse
Home advantage
Toulouse

Green = favours Toulouse · Blue = favours Marseille. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ToulouseLLWDW1.4 ppg
MarseilleWWLLL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Toulouse1491
Marseille1513
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model42% · 28% · 30%
Power Rating43% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning29% · 32% · 39%

AI match preview

Toulouse and Marseille are set for a closely contested Ligue 1 clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 37% probability, while a draw and away win are also plausible outcomes. Expected goals suggest a tight encounter with 1.56 for Toulouse and 1.29 for Marseille, and the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw. With over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 59%, fans can anticipate an engaging match, but remember these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.29

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 54%

Under 46%

Both teams to score

Yes 59%

No 41%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2024 Toulouse 2–2 Marseille
Sept 2023 Marseille 0–0 Toulouse