Paris SG vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 23/24 · Sun 21 Apr, 21:00
Paris SG
41 Full time
Lyon
Paris SG 4–1 Lyon

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (66%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 66%
Draw 18%
Away 16%

💡 Paris SG are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 80.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 80.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1686 v 1515 Paris SG rated higher
Form Index DDWWD v WWDWW Paris SG 1.8 · Lyon 2.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Paris SG v Lyon

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Why we predict this

  • Paris SG is the stronger side on Power Rating (1686 vs 1515).
  • Lyon is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.8 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.2 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Paris SG
Form Index
Lyon
Goal expectation
Paris SG
Home advantage
Paris SG

Green = favours Paris SG · Blue = favours Lyon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Paris SGDDWWD1.8 ppg
LyonWWDWW2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Paris SG1686
Lyon1515
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model60% · 22% · 18%
Power Rating70% · 12% · 18%
Machine-learning87% · 11% · 2%

AI match preview

Paris SG host Lyon in a Ligue 1 clash where the home side holds a 66% chance of victory according to model projections, with an expected goals tally favoring PSG at 2.20 to Lyon's 1.16. Despite the home advantage, the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, reflecting a competitive encounter with both teams expected to find the net in 62% of scenarios. Over 2.5 goals is also a strong possibility at 65%, underscoring a potentially open game; however, these are statistical projections and all betting should be approached responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.16

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 65%

Under 35%

Both teams to score

Yes 62%

No 38%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2024 Paris SG 4–1 Lyon
Sept 2023 Lyon 1–4 Paris SG