Metz vs Lille Prediction

Ligue 1 23/24 · Sun 28 Apr, 13:00
Metz
12 Full time
Lille
Metz 1–2 Lille

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (55%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 20%
Draw 24%
Away 55%

💡 Lille are favourites — about 55 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 64.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 64.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1423 v 1581 Lille rated higher
Form Index LLLWW v DWWWL Metz 1.2 · Lille 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Metz v Lille

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Why we predict this

  • Lille is the stronger side on Power Rating (1581 vs 1423).
  • Lille is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lille
Form Index
Lille
Goal expectation
Lille
Home advantage
Metz

Green = favours Metz · Blue = favours Lille. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MetzLLLWW1.2 ppg
LilleDWWWL2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Metz1423
Lille1581
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model28% · 34% · 38%
Power Rating30% · 19% · 51%
Machine-learning10% · 22% · 68%

AI match preview

Lille are favored to edge Metz with a 55% chance of an away win, although the model also suggests a notable 24% probability of a draw. Expected goals are close, at 0.94 for Metz and 1.13 for Lille, pointing to a tight contest likely to end around 1-1. With only a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, this match may be a cautious, low-scoring affair; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.94 – 1.13

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 34%

Under 66%

Both teams to score

Yes 43%

No 57%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2024 Metz 1–2 Lille
Dec 2023 Lille 2–0 Metz