Toulouse vs Montpellier Prediction

Ligue 1 23/24 · Fri 3 May, 19:00
Toulouse
12 Full time
Montpellier
Toulouse 1–2 Montpellier

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (47%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 47%
Draw 25%
Away 28%

💡 Toulouse are favourites — about 47 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 52.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 52.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1500 v 1490 Toulouse rated higher
Form Index WDWDW v WWDWD Toulouse 2.2 · Montpellier 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Toulouse v Montpellier

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1500 vs 1490).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Toulouse
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Toulouse

Green = favours Toulouse · Blue = favours Montpellier. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ToulouseWDWDW2.2 ppg
MontpellierWWDWD2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Toulouse1500
Montpellier1490
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model36% · 29% · 35%
Power Rating48% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning55% · 24% · 20%

AI match preview

Toulouse and Montpellier are set for a closely contested Ligue 1 clash, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 47%, though a draw or away victory remain plausible outcomes. The expected goals tally is nearly even at 1.38 for Toulouse and 1.34 for Montpellier, suggesting a tight match likely to produce goals on both sides, with a 57% chance for both teams to score. While just over half of the simulations lean toward more than 2.5 goals, the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw; remember these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.34

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 51%

Under 49%

Both teams to score

Yes 57%

No 43%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2024 Toulouse 1–2 Montpellier
Oct 2023 Montpellier 3–0 Toulouse