Montpellier vs Monaco Prediction

Ligue 1 24/25 · Fri 17 Jan, 18:00
Montpellier
21 Full time
Monaco
Montpellier 2–1 Monaco

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (60%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 17%
Draw 23%
Away 60%

💡 Monaco are favourites — about 60 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 69.7/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 69.7
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1377 v 1552 Monaco rated higher
Form Index DLDLL v LWDLD Montpellier 0.4 · Monaco 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Monaco is the stronger side on Power Rating (1552 vs 1377).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.7 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Monaco
Form Index
Monaco
Goal expectation
Monaco
Home advantage
Montpellier

Green = favours Montpellier · Blue = favours Monaco. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MontpellierDLDLL0.4 ppg
MonacoLWDLD1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Montpellier1377
Monaco1552
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model12% · 18% · 70%
Power Rating29% · 17% · 54%
Machine-learning5% · 38% · 56%

AI match preview

Monaco enter this Ligue 1 clash against Montpellier as clear favorites, with a 60% chance of an away win according to the model, supported by a strong confidence rating of nearly 70%. The expected goals heavily favor Monaco at 2.65 compared to Montpellier’s 1.07, suggesting an open game that is likely to produce over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. The most probable scoreline is a 2-1 victory for Monaco, but as always, these projections are statistical and outcomes can vary; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.07 – 2.65

Most likely score

1-2

9% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 72%

Under 28%

Both teams to score

Yes 62%

No 38%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 68+ matches)

MontpellierMonaco
4.4 Corners 5.3
2.4 Cards 2.2
12.6 Fouls 13.5

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2025 Montpellier 2–1 Monaco
Sept 2024 Monaco 2–1 Montpellier