Montpellier vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 24/25 · Sun 16 Feb, 14:00
Montpellier
14 Full time
Lyon
Montpellier 1–4 Lyon

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (57%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 18%
Draw 25%
Away 57%

💡 Lyon are favourites — about 57 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 65.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 65.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1386 v 1546 Lyon rated higher
Form Index LWWLL v LDDLW Montpellier 1.2 · Lyon 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Lyon is the stronger side on Power Rating (1546 vs 1386).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.2 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lyon
Form Index
Montpellier
Goal expectation
Lyon
Home advantage
Montpellier

Green = favours Montpellier · Blue = favours Lyon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MontpellierLWWLL1.2 ppg
LyonLDDLW1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Montpellier1386
Lyon1546
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model19% · 22% · 59%
Power Rating30% · 18% · 52%
Machine-learning5% · 51% · 44%

AI match preview

Montpellier hosts Lyon in a Ligue 1 clash where the model favors an away win with a 57% probability, though a draw is also a significant possibility at 25%. Expected goals suggest a lively encounter (1.24 for Montpellier, 2.23 for Lyon), with the most likely scoreline pegged at 1-1, highlighting potential for goals at both ends. With a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, this match could offer plenty of action; remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.24 – 2.23

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 67%

Under 33%

Both teams to score

Yes 64%

No 36%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2025 Montpellier 1–4 Lyon
Jan 2025 Lyon 1–0 Montpellier