Lille vs Marseille Prediction

Ligue 1 24/25 · Sun 4 May, 20:45
Lille
11 Full time
Marseille
Lille 1–1 Marseille

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (40%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 40%
Draw 26%
Away 34%

💡 Lille have a slight edge — leaning Lille, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 42.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 42.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1588 v 1555 Lille rated higher
Form Index WLWWW v LWLWW Lille 2.4 · Marseille 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1588 vs 1555).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lille
Form Index
Lille
Goal expectation
Lille
Home advantage
Lille

Green = favours Lille · Blue = favours Marseille. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LilleWLWWW2.4 ppg
MarseilleLWLWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Lille1588
Marseille1555
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model42% · 26% · 32%
Power Rating52% · 18% · 30%
Machine-learning27% · 28% · 45%

AI match preview

Lille and Marseille are set for a closely contested Ligue 1 clash, with the model giving Lille a slight edge at 40% to claim victory, while a draw and Marseille win stand at 26% and 34% respectively. Expected goals suggest a tight match, 1.72 for Lille and 1.49 for Marseille, with the most likely scoreline predicted as 1-1. There’s a strong chance of goals, with a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.49

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 62%

Under 38%

Both teams to score

Yes 65%

No 35%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2025 Lille 1–1 Marseille
Dec 2024 Marseille 1–1 Lille