Toulouse vs Lens Prediction

Ligue 1 24/25 · Sat 10 May, 21:00
Toulouse
11 Full time
Lens
Toulouse 1–1 Lens

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 25%
Away 34%

💡 Toulouse have a slight edge — leaning Toulouse, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1480 v 1489 Lens rated higher
Form Index LLLDW v WLWLW Toulouse 0.8 · Lens 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Toulouse v Lens

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1480 vs 1489).
  • Lens is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lens
Form Index
Lens
Goal expectation
Lens
Home advantage
Toulouse

Green = favours Toulouse · Blue = favours Lens. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ToulouseLLLDW0.8 ppg
LensWLWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Toulouse1480
Lens1489
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model23% · 32% · 46%
Power Rating45% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning49% · 16% · 35%

AI match preview

Toulouse and Lens face off in what promises to be a closely contested Ligue 1 encounter, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 41% probability. Expected goals suggest a tight match with Lens edging the attack (1.32 to 0.87), and the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw. While both teams scoring is slightly less than even odds at 44%, a low-scoring game under 2.5 goals seems probable; remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.87 – 1.32

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 37%

Under 63%

Both teams to score

Yes 44%

No 56%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2025 Toulouse 1–1 Lens
Jan 2025 Lens 0–1 Toulouse