Metz vs Auxerre Prediction

Ligue 1 25/26 · Sun 15 Feb, 16:15
Metz
13 Full time
Auxerre
Metz 1–3 Auxerre

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (31%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 36%
Draw 31%
Away 33%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 36.9/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 36.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1394 v 1411 Auxerre rated higher
Form Index DLLLD v LLLDD Metz 0.4 · Auxerre 0.4 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1394 vs 1411).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Auxerre
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Metz
Home advantage
Metz

Green = favours Metz · Blue = favours Auxerre. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MetzDLLLD0.4 ppg
AuxerreLLLDD0.4 ppg
Power Rating
Metz1394
Auxerre1411
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model43% · 35% · 21%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 33%
Machine-learning36% · 35% · 29%

AI match preview

Metz and Auxerre are set to face off in a tightly contested Ligue 1 clash, with the model giving Metz a slight edge at 36% to win, while a draw stands at 31%, and an Auxerre victory close behind at 33%. With expected goals of 1.10 for Metz and 0.69 for Auxerre, the match is projected to be low-scoring, with a 0-0 draw as the most likely outcome. Given the 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and 35% probability of both teams scoring, this encounter could hinge on tight defenses and missed chances—these projections are statistical estimates, so please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.10 – 0.69

Most likely score

0-0

18% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 27%

Under 73%

Both teams to score

Yes 35%

No 65%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Metz 1–3 Auxerre
Dec 2025 Auxerre 3–1 Metz