Marseille vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 25/26 · Sun 1 Mar, 19:45
Marseille
32 Full time
Lyon
Marseille 3–2 Lyon

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (48%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 48%
Draw 25%
Away 27%

💡 Marseille are favourites — about 48 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 54.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 54.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1555 v 1570 Lyon rated higher
Form Index WDLDL v WWWWL Marseille 1.0 · Lyon 2.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1555 vs 1570).
  • Lyon is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.1 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lyon
Form Index
Lyon
Goal expectation
Marseille
Home advantage
Marseille

Green = favours Marseille · Blue = favours Lyon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MarseilleWDLDL1.0 ppg
LyonWWWWL2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Marseille1555
Lyon1570
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model51% · 23% · 25%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 33%
Machine-learning47% · 27% · 26%

AI match preview

Marseille host Lyon in a Ligue 1 clash where the home side holds a 48% chance of victory, slightly edging out a draw at 25% and an away win at 27%. The model forecasts a competitive match with an expected 2.09 goals for Marseille and 1.44 for Lyon, suggesting a balanced contest possibly ending in a 1-1 draw. With a 68% probability for both over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open game, though these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.44

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 68%

Under 32%

Both teams to score

Yes 68%

No 32%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Marseille 3–2 Lyon
Aug 2025 Lyon 1–0 Marseille