Paris SG vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 25/26 · Sun 19 Apr, 20:45
Paris SG
12 Full time
Lyon
Paris SG 1–2 Lyon

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (68%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 68%
Draw 18%
Away 14%

💡 Paris SG are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 82.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 82.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1649 v 1552 Paris SG rated higher
Form Index 2.4 v 1.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Paris SG is the stronger side on Power Rating (1649 vs 1552).
  • Paris SG is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Paris SG
Form Index
Paris SG
Goal expectation
Paris SG
Home advantage
Paris SG

Green = favours Paris SG · Blue = favours Lyon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Paris SGWWLWW2.4 ppg
LyonDDLDW1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Paris SG1649
Lyon1552
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model65% · 23% · 12%
Power Rating63% · 13% · 25%
Machine-learning66% · 22% · 12%

AI match preview

Paris SG enters this Ligue 1 clash against Lyon as the strong favorite, with a 68% probability of securing a home win and an expected 2.02 goals scored compared to Lyon's 0.79. The model suggests a 2-0 victory as the most likely scoreline, reflecting PSG's offensive edge and defensive solidity. While the chance of over 2.5 goals sits just above 50%, and both teams scoring is less than even, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.02 – 0.79

Most likely score

2-0

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 53%

Under 47%

Both teams to score

Yes 49%

No 51%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Paris SG 1–2 Lyon
Nov 2025 Lyon 2–3 Paris SG