Empoli vs Spezia Prediction

Serie A 22/23 · Sat 11 Feb, 14:00
Empoli
22 Full time
Spezia
Empoli 2–2 Spezia

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (52%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 52%
Draw 26%
Away 22%

💡 Empoli are favourites — about 52 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 59.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 59.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1489 v 1416 Empoli rated higher
Form Index DWWDL v DWLLL Empoli 1.6 · Spezia 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Empoli v Spezia

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Empoli is the stronger side on Power Rating (1489 vs 1416).
  • Empoli is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.3 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Empoli
Form Index
Empoli
Goal expectation
Empoli
Home advantage
Empoli

Green = favours Empoli · Blue = favours Spezia. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
EmpoliDWWDL1.6 ppg
SpeziaDWLLL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Empoli1489
Spezia1416
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model55% · 32% · 13%
Power Rating59% · 15% · 27%
Machine-learning56% · 28% · 16%

AI match preview

Empoli holds a 52% chance of securing a home victory against Spezia, with the model favoring a tight 1-0 scoreline based on expected goals of 1.31 to 0.51. The likelihood of a draw stands at 26%, while an away win for Spezia is projected at 22%. With only a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, this encounter may lean towards a low-scoring affair. Remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.31 – 0.51

Most likely score

1-0

20% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 27%

Under 73%

Both teams to score

Yes 31%

No 69%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2023 Empoli 2–2 Spezia
Aug 2022 Spezia 1–0 Empoli