Fiorentina vs Milan Prediction

Serie A 22/23 · Sat 4 Mar, 19:45
Fiorentina
21 Full time
Milan
Fiorentina 2–1 Milan

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 33%
Draw 28%
Away 39%

💡 Milan have a slight edge — leaning Milan, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 40.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1482 v 1566 Milan rated higher
Form Index 1.0 v 1.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Fiorentina v Milan

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Why we predict this

  • Milan is the stronger side on Power Rating (1566 vs 1482).
  • Milan is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Milan
Form Index
Milan
Goal expectation
Milan
Home advantage
Fiorentina

Green = favours Fiorentina · Blue = favours Milan. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FiorentinaDLLDW1.0 ppg
MilanLLWWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Fiorentina1482
Milan1566
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 29% · 42%
Power Rating35% · 25% · 40%
Machine-learning28% · 26% · 46%

AI match preview

Fiorentina host Milan in a Serie A clash where the visitors hold a slight edge with a 39% chance to win, though a draw remains a strong possibility at 28%. The model predicts a closely contested match with an expected goals tally favoring Milan slightly (1.46 vs. 1.17), and a 1-1 scoreline as the most likely outcome. With a 54% probability for both teams to score and a near-even split on goals over 2.5, this game promises tension and opportunities on both ends—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.46

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 54%

No 46%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2023 Fiorentina 2–1 Milan
Nov 2022 Milan 2–1 Fiorentina