Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction

Serie A 22/23 · Mon 17 Apr, 20:45
Fiorentina
11 Full time
Atalanta
Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (37%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 37%
Draw 27%
Away 35%

💡 Fiorentina have a slight edge — leaning Fiorentina, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 37.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1524 v 1535 Atalanta rated higher
Form Index 2.6 v 1.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Fiorentina v Atalanta

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1524 vs 1535).
  • Fiorentina is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.7 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Atalanta
Form Index
Fiorentina
Goal expectation
Atalanta
Home advantage
Fiorentina

Green = favours Fiorentina · Blue = favours Atalanta. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FiorentinaWWWWD2.6 ppg
AtalantaDLWWL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Fiorentina1524
Atalanta1535
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model23% · 27% · 50%
Power Rating45% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning31% · 32% · 37%

AI match preview

Fiorentina and Atalanta face off in a tightly contested Serie A match where the home side holds a slight edge with a 37% chance of victory, closely followed by Atalanta at 35%. The model projects a balanced encounter with an expected scoreline around 1-1, supported by a 56% probability for both teams to score and a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals. While Fiorentina is favored, the statistical outlook suggests an evenly matched game, so fans should enjoy the uncertainty and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.69

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 53%

Under 47%

Both teams to score

Yes 56%

No 44%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta
Oct 2022 Atalanta 1–0 Fiorentina