Monza vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A 22/23 · Sun 23 Apr, 15:00
Monza
32 Full time
Fiorentina
Monza 3–2 Fiorentina

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (41%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 30%
Draw 29%
Away 41%

💡 Fiorentina have a slight edge — leaning Fiorentina, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 44.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1488 v 1522 Fiorentina rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 2.2 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Monza v Fiorentina

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1488 vs 1522).
  • Fiorentina is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Fiorentina
Form Index
Fiorentina
Goal expectation
Fiorentina
Home advantage
Monza

Green = favours Monza · Blue = favours Fiorentina. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MonzaDDLDW1.2 ppg
FiorentinaWWWDD2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Monza1488
Fiorentina1522
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model28% · 35% · 38%
Power Rating41% · 24% · 35%
Machine-learning32% · 28% · 40%

AI match preview

Monza face Fiorentina in a Serie A clash where the model gives the away side a 41% chance of victory, slightly edging out the home win and draw probabilities. Despite Fiorentina's statistical advantage, the most likely score remains a cautious 0-0, with expected goals underlining a tight contest. Goals may be limited as both teams have a moderate 41% chance for BTTS and just 31% for over 2.5 goals; remember these projections are probabilistic, so please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.89 – 1.08

Most likely score

0-0

16% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 31%

Under 69%

Both teams to score

Yes 41%

No 59%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Monza 3–2 Fiorentina
Jan 2023 Fiorentina 1–1 Monza