Atalanta vs Roma Prediction

Serie A 22/23 · Mon 24 Apr, 20:45
Atalanta
31 Full time
Roma
Atalanta 3–1 Roma

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (39%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 39%
Draw 29%
Away 33%

💡 Atalanta have a slight edge — leaning Atalanta, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 40.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1536 v 1581 Roma rated higher
Form Index 1.4 v 1.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Roma is the stronger side on Power Rating (1581 vs 1536).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Roma
Form Index
Roma
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Atalanta

Green = favours Atalanta · Blue = favours Roma. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AtalantaLWWLD1.4 ppg
RomaLLWWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Atalanta1536
Roma1581
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model37% · 28% · 35%
Power Rating40% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning36% · 28% · 35%

AI match preview

Atalanta and Roma are set for a tightly contested Serie A clash, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 39% probability and a 40/100 confidence level. The expected goals are nearly even, 1.42 for Atalanta and 1.39 for Roma, suggesting a balanced match likely to see both teams scoring, with a 59% chance of BTTS. While a 1-1 draw is the most probable scoreline, there's also a 53% chance the game will feature over 2.5 goals; remember these are statistical projections and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.39

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 53%

Under 47%

Both teams to score

Yes 59%

No 41%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Gewiss Stadium Bergamo, Italy Capacity 24,950 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Atalanta 3–1 Roma
Sept 2022 Roma 0–1 Atalanta