Roma vs Milan Prediction

Serie A 22/23 · Sat 29 Apr, 18:00
Roma
11 Full time
Milan
Roma 1–1 Milan

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 30%
Away 29%

💡 Roma have a slight edge — leaning Roma, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 44.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1566 v 1571 Milan rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Roma v Milan

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1566 vs 1571).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Roma
Goal expectation
Roma
Home advantage
Roma

Green = favours Roma · Blue = favours Milan. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
RomaLWWWL1.8 ppg
MilanLWDDW1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Roma1566
Milan1571
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model50% · 31% · 19%
Power Rating46% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning46% · 28% · 26%

AI match preview

Roma hold a slight advantage with a 41% chance of victory over Milan, backed by an expected goals tally of 1.40 to 0.78. The model suggests a tight contest, most likely ending 1-0 in favor of the home side, with a moderate probability for goals given only a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score. These projections are statistical estimates and should be considered with caution; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.40 – 0.78

Most likely score

1-0

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 37%

Under 63%

Both teams to score

Yes 42%

No 58%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Olimpico Rome, Italy Capacity 70,634 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Roma 1–1 Milan
Jan 2023 Milan 2–2 Roma