Atalanta vs Spezia Prediction

Serie A 22/23 · Wed 3 May, 18:00
Atalanta
32 Full time
Spezia
Atalanta 3–2 Spezia

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (68%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 68%
Draw 19%
Away 13%

💡 Atalanta are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 82.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 82.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1563 v 1394 Atalanta rated higher
Form Index 2 v 0.6 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Atalanta v Spezia

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Why we predict this

  • Atalanta is the stronger side on Power Rating (1563 vs 1394).
  • Atalanta is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Atalanta
Form Index
Atalanta
Goal expectation
Atalanta
Home advantage
Atalanta

Green = favours Atalanta · Blue = favours Spezia. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AtalantaWLDWW2 ppg
SpeziaDDLDL0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Atalanta1563
Spezia1394
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model65% · 23% · 13%
Power Rating70% · 12% · 18%
Machine-learning68% · 25% · 7%

AI match preview

Atalanta enter this Serie A clash with a strong 68% probability of securing a home win against Spezia, backed by an expected goals advantage of 2.04 to 0.82. The model suggests a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely outcome, with a moderate 54% chance of the match seeing over 2.5 goals and an even 50% probability of both teams scoring. These projections provide insight based on statistics, but remember to gamble responsibly and only if you're 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.04 – 0.82

Most likely score

2-0

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 54%

Under 46%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Gewiss Stadium Bergamo, Italy Capacity 24,950 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Atalanta 3–2 Spezia
Jan 2023 Spezia 2–2 Atalanta