Napoli vs Salernitana Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Sat 13 Jan, 14:00
Napoli
21 Full time
Salernitana
Napoli 2–1 Salernitana

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (70%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 70%
Draw 17%
Away 13%

💡 Napoli are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 85.2/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 85.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1505 v 1398 Napoli rated higher
Form Index LWLDL v LLDWL Napoli 0.8 · Salernitana 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Napoli is the stronger side on Power Rating (1505 vs 1398).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Napoli
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Napoli
Home advantage
Napoli

Green = favours Napoli · Blue = favours Salernitana. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NapoliLWLDL0.8 ppg
SalernitanaLLDWL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Napoli1505
Salernitana1398
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model55% · 26% · 19%
Power Rating64% · 12% · 24%
Machine-learning84% · 12% · 5%

AI match preview

Napoli enters this Serie A clash as strong favorites with a 70% probability to secure a home win, backed by an expected goals tally of 1.79 compared to Salernitana's 0.96. Despite the high likelihood of a Napoli victory, the model intriguingly suggests a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline, highlighting the competitive edge Salernitana may offer. With just over half the chances for both teams to score and for the match to exceed 2.5 goals, this game promises a balanced contest—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.79 – 0.96

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 52%

Under 48%

Both teams to score

Yes 53%

No 47%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 38+ matches)

NapoliSalernitana
5.8 Corners 3.9
1.6 Cards 2.4
10.7 Fouls 11.8

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Naples, Italy Capacity 54,726 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Napoli 2–1 Salernitana
Nov 2023 Salernitana 0–2 Napoli