Milan vs Roma Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Sun 14 Jan, 19:45
Milan
31 Full time
Roma
Milan 3–1 Roma

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (51%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 51%
Draw 26%
Away 22%

💡 Milan are favourites — about 51 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 57.9/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 57.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1584 v 1537 Milan rated higher
Form Index LWDWW v DLWLD Milan 2.0 · Roma 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Milan v Roma

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Why we predict this

  • Milan is the stronger side on Power Rating (1584 vs 1537).
  • Milan is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Milan
Form Index
Milan
Goal expectation
Milan
Home advantage
Milan

Green = favours Milan · Blue = favours Roma. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MilanLWDWW2.0 ppg
RomaDLWLD1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Milan1584
Roma1537
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model62% · 27% · 11%
Power Rating55% · 17% · 29%
Machine-learning54% · 26% · 19%

AI match preview

Milan holds a slight statistical edge with a 51% chance of securing a home win against Roma, who are projected to score less with an expected 0.56 goals compared to Milan’s 1.63. The model suggests a tight match, most likely ending 1-0, with relatively low probabilities for over 2.5 goals (38%) and both teams scoring (36%). These projections are based on current data and probabilities, so please remember to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.63 – 0.56

Most likely score

1-0

17% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 38%

Under 62%

Both teams to score

Yes 36%

No 64%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 114+ matches)

MilanRoma
5.0 Corners 4.7
2.0 Cards 2.1
10.8 Fouls 12.1

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

San Siro Milan, Italy Capacity 75,923 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Milan 3–1 Roma
Sept 2023 Roma 1–2 Milan