Empoli vs Monza Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Sun 21 Jan, 14:00
Empoli
30 Full time
Monza
Empoli 3–0 Monza

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 31%
Draw 31%
Away 39%

💡 Monza have a slight edge — leaning Monza, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 40.8/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.8
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1388 v 1484 Monza rated higher
Form Index LLDLL v LLDWL Empoli 0.2 · Monza 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Monza is the stronger side on Power Rating (1484 vs 1388).
  • Monza is in clearly better recent form (0.8 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.3 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Monza
Form Index
Monza
Goal expectation
Monza
Home advantage
Empoli

Green = favours Empoli · Blue = favours Monza. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
EmpoliLLDLL0.2 ppg
MonzaLLDWL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Empoli1388
Monza1484
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model18% · 32% · 51%
Power Rating35% · 24% · 41%
Machine-learning22% · 40% · 38%

AI match preview

Empoli hosts Monza in a Serie A clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 39%, with a narrow 40.8% confidence. The expected goals suggest a low-scoring game, likely ending 0-1, with only a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% probability both teams score. These projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.70 – 1.34

Most likely score

0-1

16% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 34%

Under 66%

Both teams to score

Yes 39%

No 61%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 76+ matches)

EmpoliMonza
4.6 Corners 4.0
2.1 Cards 2.4
14.3 Fouls 12.8

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Empoli 3–0 Monza
Aug 2023 Monza 2–0 Empoli