Lazio vs Napoli Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Sun 28 Jan, 17:00
Lazio
00 Full time
Napoli
Lazio 0–0 Napoli

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 30%
Away 28%

💡 Lazio have a slight edge — leaning Lazio, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 45.6/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 45.6
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1540 v 1511 Lazio rated higher
Form Index LWWWW v WLDLW Lazio 2.4 · Napoli 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1540 vs 1511).
  • Lazio is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lazio
Form Index
Lazio
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Lazio

Green = favours Lazio · Blue = favours Napoli. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LazioLWWWW2.4 ppg
NapoliWLDLW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Lazio1540
Napoli1511
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model32% · 34% · 34%
Power Rating51% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning48% · 36% · 16%

AI match preview

Lazio and Napoli face off in a Serie A clash where the model slightly favors a Lazio victory with a 42% chance, though a draw is also a strong possibility at 30%. Both teams are expected to produce a close contest with an anticipated 1-1 scoreline and a moderate likelihood of both sides scoring (44%). Over 2.5 goals seems less probable at 35%, indicating a potentially tight and tactical encounter; remember these projections are statistical and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.07

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 35%

Under 65%

Both teams to score

Yes 44%

No 56%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 114+ matches)

LazioNapoli
5.0 Corners 5.8
2.6 Cards 1.6
11.4 Fouls 10.7

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Lazio 0–0 Napoli
Sept 2023 Napoli 1–2 Lazio