Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Fri 2 Feb, 19:45
Lecce
32 Full time
Fiorentina
Lecce 3–2 Fiorentina

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (43%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 28%
Draw 30%
Away 43%

💡 Fiorentina have a slight edge — leaning Fiorentina, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 46.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1440 v 1531 Fiorentina rated higher
Form Index LDLLL v WWLDL Lecce 0.2 · Fiorentina 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Fiorentina is the stronger side on Power Rating (1531 vs 1440).
  • Fiorentina is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Fiorentina
Form Index
Fiorentina
Goal expectation
Fiorentina
Home advantage
Lecce

Green = favours Lecce · Blue = favours Fiorentina. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LecceLDLLL0.2 ppg
FiorentinaWWLDL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Lecce1440
Fiorentina1531
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model24% · 30% · 46%
Power Rating35% · 25% · 41%
Machine-learning26% · 34% · 40%

AI match preview

Lecce hosts Fiorentina in a Serie A clash where the visitors hold a 43% chance of victory, slightly favored over a 28% home win probability and a 30% draw likelihood. The model projects a close contest with an expected goals tally of 0.95 for Lecce and 1.40 for Fiorentina, making a 1-1 draw the most likely score despite a lean towards an away win. With only a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability of both teams scoring, this match could hinge on tight margins—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.40

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 114+ matches)

LecceFiorentina
4.4 Corners 4.5
2.0 Cards 2.2
12.7 Fouls 12.0

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2024 Lecce 3–2 Fiorentina
Aug 2023 Fiorentina 2–2 Lecce