Salernitana vs Empoli Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Fri 9 Feb, 19:45
Salernitana
13 Full time
Empoli
Salernitana 1–3 Empoli

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (40%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 40%
Draw 29%
Away 31%

💡 Salernitana have a slight edge — leaning Salernitana, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 41.9/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1379 v 1417 Empoli rated higher
Form Index LLLLD v LLWDD Salernitana 0.2 · Empoli 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1379 vs 1417).
  • Empoli is in clearly better recent form (1.0 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Empoli
Form Index
Empoli
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Salernitana

Green = favours Salernitana · Blue = favours Empoli. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
SalernitanaLLLLD0.2 ppg
EmpoliLLWDD1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Salernitana1379
Empoli1417
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model36% · 31% · 34%
Power Rating41% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning42% · 30% · 27%

AI match preview

Salernitana hosts Empoli in a Serie A clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 40%, though a draw and away victory remain plausible outcomes. Both teams are projected to score similarly, with an expected goals tally close to 1.2 each, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With just over half the chances for both teams to score and under a 50% probability for over 2.5 goals, this match could be tightly contested—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.21

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 45%

Under 55%

Both teams to score

Yes 52%

No 48%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 38+ matches)

SalernitanaEmpoli
3.9 Corners 4.6
2.4 Cards 2.1
11.8 Fouls 14.3

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2024 Salernitana 1–3 Empoli
Sept 2023 Empoli 1–0 Salernitana