Napoli vs Genoa Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Sat 17 Feb, 14:00
Napoli
11 Full time
Genoa
Napoli 1–1 Genoa

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (54%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 54%
Draw 25%
Away 21%

💡 Napoli are favourites — about 54 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 61.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 61.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1514 v 1476 Napoli rated higher
Form Index LWDWL v DWWDL Napoli 1.4 · Genoa 1.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Napoli v Genoa

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1514 vs 1476).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Napoli
Form Index
Genoa
Goal expectation
Napoli
Home advantage
Napoli

Green = favours Napoli · Blue = favours Genoa. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NapoliLWDWL1.4 ppg
GenoaDWWDL1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Napoli1514
Genoa1476
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 32% · 30%
Power Rating53% · 18% · 29%
Machine-learning66% · 23% · 11%

AI match preview

Napoli host Genoa in a Serie A clash where the home side holds a 54% chance of victory, though a draw is also a plausible 25% outcome, reflecting a closely contested encounter. The model projects a tight match with expected goals of 1.21 for Napoli and 1.05 for Genoa, suggesting a likely 1-1 scoreline despite the slight edge to the hosts. With under 2.5 goals (61%) and a sub-50% BTTS probability, this game may lean towards a low-scoring affair; remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.05

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 39%

Under 61%

Both teams to score

Yes 47%

No 53%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Naples, Italy Capacity 54,726 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2024 Napoli 1–1 Genoa
Sept 2023 Genoa 2–2 Napoli