Napoli vs Roma Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Sun 28 Apr, 18:00
Napoli
22 Full time
Roma
Napoli 2–2 Roma

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 28%
Away 31%

💡 Napoli have a slight edge — leaning Napoli, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 45.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 45.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1522 v 1579 Roma rated higher
Form Index DLWDL v WDWLW Napoli 1.0 · Roma 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Napoli v Roma

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Why we predict this

  • Roma is the stronger side on Power Rating (1579 vs 1522).
  • Roma is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Roma
Form Index
Roma
Goal expectation
Roma
Home advantage
Napoli

Green = favours Napoli · Blue = favours Roma. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NapoliDLWDL1.0 ppg
RomaWDWLW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Napoli1522
Roma1579
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model28% · 27% · 45%
Power Rating38% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning39% · 34% · 28%

AI match preview

Napoli host Roma in a Serie A clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 42% chance of victory, though a draw or an away win remain plausible outcomes. The model anticipates an evenly contested match, projecting an expected goals tally of 1.29 for Napoli and 1.68 for Roma, with 1-1 as the most likely scoreline. With over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 61%, fans can expect a competitive and potentially open game—remember, these projections are statistical estimates; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.68

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 57%

Under 43%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Naples, Italy Capacity 54,726 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2024 Napoli 2–2 Roma
Dec 2023 Roma 2–0 Napoli