Fiorentina vs Napoli Prediction

Serie A 23/24 · Fri 17 May, 20:45
Fiorentina
22 Full time
Napoli
Fiorentina 2–2 Napoli

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 28%
Away 28%

💡 Fiorentina have a slight edge — leaning Fiorentina, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 49.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 49.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1524 v 1505 Fiorentina rated higher
Form Index DWWLW v DLDDL Fiorentina 2.0 · Napoli 0.6 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Fiorentina v Napoli

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1524 vs 1505).
  • Fiorentina is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Fiorentina
Form Index
Fiorentina
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Fiorentina

Green = favours Fiorentina · Blue = favours Napoli. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FiorentinaDWWLW2.0 ppg
NapoliDLDDL0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Fiorentina1524
Napoli1505
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model35% · 28% · 37%
Power Rating50% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning45% · 40% · 14%

AI match preview

Fiorentina host Napoli in a Serie A clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 44% chance of victory, while a draw or away win both sit at 28%. The model predicts an evenly matched game with expected goals nearly identical (1.45 vs. 1.49) and a most likely scoreline of 1-1, reflecting the tight nature of this encounter. With over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 61%, fans can anticipate an open contest, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.49

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 56%

Under 44%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2024 Fiorentina 2–2 Napoli
Oct 2023 Napoli 1–3 Fiorentina