Monza vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A 24/25 · Mon 13 Jan, 19:45
Monza
21 Full time
Fiorentina
Monza 2–1 Fiorentina

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (54%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 20%
Draw 27%
Away 54%

💡 Fiorentina are favourites — about 54 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 61.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 61.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1405 v 1551 Fiorentina rated higher
Form Index LLLLL v WLLDL Monza 0.0 · Fiorentina 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Fiorentina is the stronger side on Power Rating (1551 vs 1405).
  • Fiorentina is in clearly better recent form (0.8 vs 0.0 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Fiorentina
Form Index
Monza
Goal expectation
Fiorentina
Home advantage
Monza

Green = favours Monza · Blue = favours Fiorentina. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MonzaLLLLL0.0 ppg
FiorentinaWLLDL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Monza1405
Fiorentina1551
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model12% · 25% · 63%
Power Rating31% · 20% · 49%
Machine-learning8% · 32% · 60%

AI match preview

Monza hosts Fiorentina in a Serie A clash where the model gives the away side a 54% chance of victory, reflecting Fiorentina’s stronger expected attacking output with 1.76 goals compared to Monza’s 0.63. A tight encounter is anticipated, with the most likely scoreline projected as 0-1 and a relatively low probability for over 2.5 goals at 43%. Both teams finding the net is also considered unlikely at 40%, but these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.63 – 1.76

Most likely score

0-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 43%

Under 57%

Both teams to score

Yes 40%

No 60%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 76+ matches)

MonzaFiorentina
4.0 Corners 4.5
2.4 Cards 2.2
12.8 Fouls 12.0

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2025 Monza 2–1 Fiorentina
Sept 2024 Fiorentina 2–2 Monza