Atalanta vs Napoli Prediction

Serie A 24/25 · Sat 18 Jan, 19:45
Atalanta
23 Full time
Napoli
Atalanta 2–3 Napoli

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (43%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 43%
Draw 27%
Away 31%

💡 Atalanta have a slight edge — leaning Atalanta, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 46.2/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1625 v 1627 Napoli rated higher
Form Index WWDDD v WWWWW Atalanta 1.8 · Napoli 3.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1625 vs 1627).
  • Napoli is in clearly better recent form (3.0 vs 1.8 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Napoli
Goal expectation
Napoli
Home advantage
Atalanta

Green = favours Atalanta · Blue = favours Napoli. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AtalantaWWDDD1.8 ppg
NapoliWWWWW3.0 ppg
Power Rating
Atalanta1625
Napoli1627
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model32% · 27% · 41%
Power Rating46% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning54% · 21% · 25%

AI match preview

Atalanta host Napoli in a Serie A clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 43%, though a draw and away victory remain plausible outcomes. Both teams are projected to score, with an expected goals tally suggesting a tight contest likely ending in a 1-1 draw. With a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and 63% probability for both teams to score, this match promises attacking action, but remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.65

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 59%

Under 41%

Both teams to score

Yes 63%

No 37%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 114+ matches)

AtalantaNapoli
5.4 Corners 5.8
1.8 Cards 1.6
12.0 Fouls 10.7

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

Gewiss Stadium Bergamo, Italy Capacity 24,950 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2025 Atalanta 2–3 Napoli
Nov 2024 Napoli 0–3 Atalanta