Lazio vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A 24/25 · Sun 26 Jan, 19:45
Lazio
12 Full time
Fiorentina
Lazio 1–2 Fiorentina

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 31%
Away 28%

💡 Lazio have a slight edge — leaning Lazio, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.2/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1553 v 1533 Lazio rated higher
Form Index WDLDW v LDLLD Lazio 1.6 · Fiorentina 0.4 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1553 vs 1533).
  • Lazio is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Lazio
Form Index
Lazio
Goal expectation
Fiorentina
Home advantage
Lazio

Green = favours Lazio · Blue = favours Fiorentina. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LazioWDLDW1.6 ppg
FiorentinaLDLLD0.4 ppg
Power Rating
Lazio1553
Fiorentina1533
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 27% · 44%
Power Rating50% · 19% · 31%
Machine-learning28% · 57% · 16%

AI match preview

Lazio hosts Fiorentina in a Serie A clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 41% probability of winning, though a draw at 31% and an away victory at 28% remain plausible outcomes. The model predicts a closely contested match with an expected goals tally favoring Fiorentina marginally at 1.61 to Lazio's 1.29, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and 60% probability of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.61

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 56%

Under 44%

Both teams to score

Yes 60%

No 40%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 114+ matches)

LazioFiorentina
5.0 Corners 4.5
2.6 Cards 2.2
11.4 Fouls 12.0

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2025 Lazio 1–2 Fiorentina
Sept 2024 Fiorentina 2–1 Lazio