Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A 24/25 · Sat 5 Apr, 20:45
Milan
22 Full time
Fiorentina
Milan 2–2 Fiorentina

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (46%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 46%
Draw 26%
Away 28%

💡 Milan are favourites — about 46 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 51.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 51.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1534 v 1560 Fiorentina rated higher
Form Index LLWWL v LWLWW Milan 1.2 · Fiorentina 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1534 vs 1560).
  • Fiorentina is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Fiorentina
Form Index
Fiorentina
Goal expectation
Milan
Home advantage
Milan

Green = favours Milan · Blue = favours Fiorentina. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MilanLLWWL1.2 ppg
FiorentinaLWLWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Milan1534
Fiorentina1560
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model40% · 32% · 28%
Power Rating42% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning35% · 23% · 42%

AI match preview

Milan host Fiorentina in a Serie A clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 46%, though a draw or away victory remain plausible outcomes. Expected goals suggest a tight contest with Milan edging 1.23 to 0.99, and the most likely scoreline projected as 1-1. With under 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring, this match could be finely balanced—remember, these are statistical projections; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.23 – 0.99

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 38%

Under 62%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

San Siro Milan, Italy Capacity 75,923 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2025 Milan 2–2 Fiorentina
Oct 2024 Fiorentina 2–1 Milan