Lazio vs Roma Prediction

Serie A 24/25 · Sun 13 Apr, 20:45
Lazio
11 Full time
Roma
Lazio 1–1 Roma

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (38%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 38%
Draw 26%
Away 36%

💡 Lazio have a slight edge — leaning Lazio, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 39.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1558 v 1579 Roma rated higher
Form Index WDLDW v WWWWD Lazio 1.6 · Roma 2.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Lazio v Roma

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1558 vs 1579).
  • Roma is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.6 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Roma
Form Index
Roma
Goal expectation
Lazio
Home advantage
Lazio

Green = favours Lazio · Blue = favours Roma. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LazioWDLDW1.6 ppg
RomaWWWWD2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Lazio1558
Roma1579
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model47% · 28% · 25%
Power Rating43% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning49% · 15% · 36%

AI match preview

Lazio and Roma are set for a tightly contested Serie A clash, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 38% probability, closely matched by a 36% chance for an away victory. Expected goals suggest a modest edge to Lazio (1.58 to 1.10), but the most likely scoreline remains a 1-1 draw. With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and 55% probability both teams will score, fans can anticipate an open game; however, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.10

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2025 Lazio 1–1 Roma
Jan 2025 Roma 2–0 Lazio