Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A 24/25 · Sun 4 May, 18:00
Roma
10 Full time
Fiorentina
Roma 1–0 Fiorentina

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (51%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 51%
Draw 25%
Away 24%

💡 Roma are favourites — about 51 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 57.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 57.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1600 v 1569 Roma rated higher
Form Index WDDWW v WDDWW Roma 2.2 · Fiorentina 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Roma v Fiorentina

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1600 vs 1569).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Roma
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Roma
Home advantage
Roma

Green = favours Roma · Blue = favours Fiorentina. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
RomaWDDWW2.2 ppg
FiorentinaWDDWW2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Roma1600
Fiorentina1569
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 28% · 24%
Power Rating52% · 18% · 30%
Machine-learning40% · 28% · 33%

AI match preview

Roma hold a slight edge with a 51% probability of securing a home win against Fiorentina, who are pegged at 24%, while a draw sits at 25%. The model anticipates a competitive match with expected goals of 1.61 for Roma and 1.07 for Fiorentina, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline despite the home win pick. With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and 54% likelihood of both teams scoring, this game promises balanced attacking action—remember these projections are statistical estimates, so please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.07

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 54%

No 46%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Stadium & conditions

Stadio Olimpico Rome, Italy Capacity 70,634 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2025 Roma 1–0 Fiorentina
Oct 2024 Fiorentina 5–1 Roma