Roma vs Milan Prediction

Serie A 24/25 · Sun 18 May, 20:45
Roma
31 Full time
Milan
Roma 3–1 Milan

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (45%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 45%
Draw 24%
Away 30%

💡 Roma are favourites — about 45 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 49.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 49.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1599 v 1580 Roma rated higher
Form Index DWWWL v WLWWW Roma 2.0 · Milan 2.4 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Roma v Milan

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1599 vs 1580).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.8 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Roma
Form Index
Milan
Goal expectation
Roma
Home advantage
Roma

Green = favours Roma · Blue = favours Milan. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
RomaDWWWL2.0 ppg
MilanWLWWW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Roma1599
Milan1580
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model52% · 26% · 22%
Power Rating50% · 19% · 31%
Machine-learning38% · 22% · 41%

AI match preview

Roma hosts Milan in a closely contested Serie A clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 45% chance of victory, while a draw and away win remain plausible outcomes. The model projects a competitive match with expected goals at 1.80 for Roma and 1.12 for Milan, suggesting a balanced battle likely to produce goals from both teams. With over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 58%, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.12

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 56%

Under 44%

Both teams to score

Yes 58%

No 42%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Olimpico Rome, Italy Capacity 70,634 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2025 Roma 3–1 Milan
Dec 2024 Milan 1–1 Roma