Fiorentina vs Milan Prediction

Serie A 25/26 · Sun 11 Jan, 14:00
Fiorentina
11 Full time
Milan
Fiorentina 1–1 Milan

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (52%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 25%
Draw 22%
Away 52%

💡 Milan are favourites — about 52 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 60.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 60.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1431 v 1598 Milan rated higher
Form Index LWLWD v WDWWD Fiorentina 1.4 · Milan 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Milan is the stronger side on Power Rating (1598 vs 1431).
  • Milan is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.9 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Milan
Form Index
Milan
Goal expectation
Milan
Home advantage
Fiorentina

Green = favours Fiorentina · Blue = favours Milan. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FiorentinaLWLWD1.4 ppg
MilanWDWWD2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Fiorentina1431
Milan1598
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model15% · 24% · 61%
Power Rating29% · 18% · 53%
Machine-learning19% · 6% · 75%

AI match preview

Fiorentina host Milan in a Serie A clash where the visitors hold a 52% chance of victory according to model projections, with a moderate confidence of 60/100. The expected goals tally favors Milan at 1.93 compared to Fiorentina's 0.88, yet the most likely score remains a balanced 1-1 draw. With just over half probability for both over 2.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (51%), this match promises competitive action—remember these are statistical forecasts and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.88 – 1.93

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 53%

Under 47%

Both teams to score

Yes 51%

No 49%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Fiorentina 1–1 Milan
Oct 2025 Milan 2–1 Fiorentina