Genoa vs Cagliari Prediction

Serie A 25/26 · Mon 12 Jan, 17:30
Genoa
30 Full time
Cagliari
Genoa 3–0 Cagliari

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 30%
Away 30%

💡 Genoa have a slight edge — leaning Genoa, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1436 v 1459 Cagliari rated higher
Form Index LLLDD v LDWLD Genoa 0.4 · Cagliari 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1436 vs 1459).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Cagliari
Form Index
Cagliari
Goal expectation
Cagliari
Home advantage
Genoa

Green = favours Genoa · Blue = favours Cagliari. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
GenoaLLLDD0.4 ppg
CagliariLDWLD1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Genoa1436
Cagliari1459
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model23% · 33% · 44%
Power Rating43% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning44% · 28% · 28%

AI match preview

Genoa hosts Cagliari in a Serie A clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 41% chance of victory, though a draw or away win remain plausible outcomes. The model anticipates a tight contest with expected goals favoring Cagliari slightly (1.23 to 0.83), pointing toward a likely 1-1 scoreline. With only a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, this matchup could hinge on a few key moments — remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.83 – 1.23

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 34%

Under 66%

Both teams to score

Yes 42%

No 58%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Genoa 3–0 Cagliari
Nov 2025 Cagliari 3–3 Genoa