Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A 25/26 · Sat 31 Jan, 17:00
Napoli
21 Full time
Fiorentina
Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (51%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 51%
Draw 32%
Away 17%

💡 Napoli are favourites — about 51 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 55.6/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 55.6
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1579 v 1437 Napoli rated higher
Form Index DDDWL v WDDWL Napoli 1.2 · Fiorentina 1.6 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Napoli is the stronger side on Power Rating (1579 vs 1437).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.9 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Napoli
Form Index
Fiorentina
Goal expectation
Napoli
Home advantage
Napoli

Green = favours Napoli · Blue = favours Fiorentina. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NapoliDDDWL1.2 ppg
FiorentinaWDDWL1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Napoli1579
Fiorentina1437
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model65% · 24% · 12%
Power Rating68% · 12% · 20%
Machine-learning23% · 71% · 6%

AI match preview

Napoli holds a 51% probability of securing a home victory against Fiorentina, with the model projecting a 2-0 scoreline and expected goals favoring Napoli 1.88 to 0.68. The chances of a draw stand at 32%, while an away win is less likely at 17%. With under 2.5 goals slightly favored at 53% and both teams to score at 43%, this match could lean towards a controlled Napoli win; remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.68

Most likely score

2-0

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 47%

Under 53%

Both teams to score

Yes 43%

No 57%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Naples, Italy Capacity 54,726 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina
Sept 2025 Fiorentina 1–3 Napoli