Atalanta vs Napoli Prediction

Serie A 25/26 · Sun 22 Feb, 14:00
Atalanta
21 Full time
Napoli
Atalanta 2–1 Napoli

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (39%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 39%
Draw 29%
Away 32%

💡 Atalanta have a slight edge — leaning Atalanta, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 41.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1571 v 1591 Napoli rated higher
Form Index DWDWW v WLWWD Atalanta 2.2 · Napoli 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1571 vs 1591).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Napoli
Form Index
Atalanta
Goal expectation
Atalanta
Home advantage
Atalanta

Green = favours Atalanta · Blue = favours Napoli. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AtalantaDWDWW2.2 ppg
NapoliWLWWD2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Atalanta1571
Napoli1591
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 32% · 25%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning33% · 23% · 44%

AI match preview

Atalanta host Napoli in a Serie A clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 39% chance of victory, though a draw is nearly as likely at 29%. The model predicts a closely contested match with an expected goals tally favoring Atalanta 1.31 to 0.93, pointing toward a probable 1-1 scoreline. With only a 39% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance both teams score, this game could hinge on tight defenses and key moments—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.31 – 0.93

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 39%

Under 61%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Gewiss Stadium Bergamo, Italy Capacity 24,950 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Atalanta 2–1 Napoli
Nov 2025 Napoli 3–1 Atalanta