Parma vs Cagliari Prediction

Serie A 25/26 · Fri 27 Feb, 19:45
Parma
11 Full time
Cagliari
Parma 1–1 Cagliari

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (40%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 40%
Draw 30%
Away 29%

💡 Parma have a slight edge — leaning Parma, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.3/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.3
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1472 v 1448 Parma rated higher
Form Index LLWWW v WWLLD Parma 1.8 · Cagliari 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1472 vs 1448).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Parma
Form Index
Parma
Goal expectation
Cagliari
Home advantage
Parma

Green = favours Parma · Blue = favours Cagliari. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ParmaLLWWW1.8 ppg
CagliariWWLLD1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Parma1472
Cagliari1448
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 32% · 39%
Power Rating51% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning32% · 34% · 34%

AI match preview

Parma and Cagliari are set for a closely contested Serie A clash, with Parma holding a slight edge at 40% to secure a home win, although a draw or away victory remain well within reach. The model projects a tight game with an expected goal range of 1.01 to 1.20 and the most probable scoreline being a 1-1 draw. With only a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% likelihood of both teams scoring, this match could hinge on fine margins; remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.01 – 1.20

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 38%

Under 62%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Parma 1–1 Cagliari
Sept 2025 Cagliari 2–0 Parma