Roma vs Atalanta Prediction

Serie A 25/26 · Sat 18 Apr, 20:45
Roma
11 Full time
Atalanta
Roma 1–1 Atalanta

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 29%
Away 30%

💡 Roma have a slight edge — leaning Roma, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 44.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1567 v 1575 Atalanta rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.6 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Roma v Atalanta

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1567 vs 1575).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Atalanta
Form Index
Atalanta
Goal expectation
Roma
Home advantage
Roma

Green = favours Roma · Blue = favours Atalanta. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
RomaLLWLW1.2 ppg
AtalantaDDWWL1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Roma1567
Atalanta1575
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 34% · 20%
Power Rating45% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning34% · 32% · 33%

AI match preview

Roma host Atalanta in a Serie A clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 41% chance of victory, while a draw or away win remain plausible outcomes. The model projects a low-scoring affair with expected goals at 1.20 for Roma and 0.71 for Atalanta, and intriguingly, a 0-0 draw is the most likely scoreline despite the slight home win preference. With only a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, this match may lean towards a tight defensive battle; remember these projections are statistical estimates and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.71

Most likely score

0-0

16% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 30%

Under 70%

Both teams to score

Yes 37%

No 63%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Olimpico Rome, Italy Capacity 70,634 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Roma 1–1 Atalanta
Jan 2026 Atalanta 1–0 Roma