Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

Serie A 25/26 · Mon 4 May, 20:45
Roma
40 Full time
Fiorentina
Roma 4–0 Fiorentina

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (58%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 58%
Draw 27%
Away 16%

💡 Roma are favourites — about 58 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 66.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 66.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1581 v 1480 Roma rated higher
Form Index 2 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Roma is the stronger side on Power Rating (1581 vs 1480).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.7 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Roma
Form Index
Roma
Goal expectation
Roma
Home advantage
Roma

Green = favours Roma · Blue = favours Fiorentina. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
RomaWLWDW2 ppg
FiorentinaDWWDD1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Roma1581
Fiorentina1480
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model63% · 26% · 12%
Power Rating63% · 12% · 25%
Machine-learning33% · 55% · 12%

AI match preview

Roma are favored to claim victory against Fiorentina with a 58% chance, supported by an expected goals tally of 1.73 to 0.64, suggesting a tight contest likely decided by a narrow margin. The model projects a most probable 1-0 scoreline, while the chances of over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring remain relatively low at 42% and 40%, respectively. Remember, these projections are statistical estimates and should be used responsibly when placing bets (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.64

Most likely score

1-0

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 40%

No 60%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Olimpico Rome, Italy Capacity 70,634 · grass
Partly cloudy · 16.7°C
Feels like 17.1°C Wind 2 km/h Rain chance 0%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Roma 4–0 Fiorentina
Oct 2025 Fiorentina 1–2 Roma